Ryanair has adjusted its expectations for fiscal 2027, lowering its passenger target from 216 million to 214 million due to a strategic reduction in winter flight capacity aimed at minimizing the impact of high unhedged jet-fuel costs. The airline highlighted that current jet fuel prices are hovering around $140 per barrel, cautioning that if these elevated prices persist, European short-haul airfares could see a significant rise. Despite this, the airline anticipates passenger traffic from November to March to remain relatively stable compared to the previous year, as it strategically manages capacity during the typically slower winter months.
To mitigate the impact of soaring fuel prices, Ryanair has hedged approximately 80% of its fuel needs for fiscal 2027 through March 2027 at about $67 per barrel, providing some shield against the current market rates. As part of its efforts to reduce seasonal losses, projected to be between €70 million and €100 million, Ryanair has already scaled back operations, notably removing five aircraft from its Charleroi base in Belgium and slashing around two million seats from its Brussels schedule for the winter of 2026 and summer of 2027. The airline also issued a cautionary note that competitors with less fuel hedging might face increased financial strain should high oil prices continue.
Despite the challenges posed by the winter outlook, Ryanair remains optimistic about its summer performance. The airline forecasts its summer traffic to grow by over 5%, buoyed by a 6% year-on-year increase in August passenger numbers, reaching 22.2 million. During this period, Ryanair maintained a load factor of 96% and operated more than 120,500 flights. However, operations were slightly disrupted with over 400 flights cancelled due to eruptions from Mount Etna.
Looking ahead, Ryanair anticipates that its profit after tax for fiscal 2027 will fall short of the record levels achieved in the previous financial year. However, the airline stated it is still too early to provide a precise profit outlook.